Swine Flu Warning From South Central Texas

Scary Swine Flu incoming info from Alma down in Port Aransas on the Texas Gulf Coast. Comal County, referenced in the next paragraph is where New Braunfels is, in south central Texas, just a bit north of San Antonio. The info below seems to be contradicted by news this morning that the Center for Disease Control has relaxed their position on closing schools if a case of Swine Flu in the school is confirmed....

"After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community leaders and school officials in Comal County, Heather suggested I send an update to everyone, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and Health Department is so different from what you are hearing in the media. Some of you know some or maybe all of this, but I will just list what facts I know.

The virus is infectious for about 2 days prior to symptom onset.

Virus sheds more than 7 days after symptom onset (possibly as long as 9 days) (this is unusual).

Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no "herd immunity," so the "attack rate" is very high. This is the percentage of people who come down with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will become infected, though not all will be symptomatc. That is much higher than seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The "clinical attack rate" may be around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms. This is a huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this.

The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad here as in Mexico, and there are folks on ventilators here in the US, right now. This has not been in the media, but a 23 month old near here is fighting for his life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life. In Mexico, these folks might have died already, but here in the US, folks are getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready access to ventilators. What this means is that within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will likely become overwhelmed.

Some of the kids with positive cases in Comal County had more than 70 contacts before diagnosis.

There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not "possible" cases -- actual), than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each "confirmed" case right now.

During the night, we crossed the threshold for the definition of a WHO, 20 Phase 6 global pandemic. This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so far. We are in uncharted territory.

I expect President Obama will declare an emergency sometime in the next 72-96 hours. This may not happen, but if it doesn't, I will be surprised. When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days.

I suggest all of us avoid public gatherings. Outdoor activities are not as likely to lead to infection. It is contained areas and close contact that are the biggest risk.

Tamiflu is running out. There is a national stockpile, but it will have to be carefully managed, as it is not enough to treat the likely number of infections when this is full-blown. I don't think there is a big supply of Relenza, but I do not know those numbers. If I had to choose, I would take Relenza, as I think it gets more drug to the affected tissue than Tamiflu.

You should avoid going to the ER if you think you have been exposed or are symptomatic. ER's south of here are becoming overwhelmed -- and I mean that -- already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting bigger.

It appears that this flu produces a distinctive "hoarseness" in many victims. The symptoms, in general, match other flu's; namely, sore throat, body aches, headache, cough, and fever. Some have all these symptoms, while others may have only one or two.

N-Acetyl-Cysteine -- a nutritional supplement available at the health food store or Wimberley Pharmacy, has been shown to prevent or lessen the severity of influenza. I suggest 1200mg, twice a day for adults, and 600mg twice a day in kids over 12. It would be hard to get kids under 12 to take it, but you could try opening the capsules and putting it on yogurt. For 40 pounds and up, 300-600 mg twice a day, for less than 40 pounds, half that.

Oscillococinum, a homeopathic remedy, has been vindicated as quite effective in a large clinical trial in Europe, with an H1N1 variant. You can buy this at a Natural Foods store, or Pharmacy."

Veterans Park, Fry's, Sweet Tomatoes and Strawberries

Isn't it about Day 12 of the Swine Flu Siege? Everywhere I go there are kids. It's time for them to go back to school. Then again we are almost at the time of year when school here lets out for the summer, so the respite would be brief.

I have a slightly sore throat and an odd burning sensation. I'm not much of a hypochondriac, but I'm almost certain my immune system is battling something.

I needed to get a web cam today. That meant going to Fry's Electronics in Arlington. That easily turned into going on a hike around Veterans Park on the way.

There were a lot of those aforementioned kids running around in Veterans Park. Veterans Park is in Arlington. Has Arlington closed its schools too? I don't know.

Today the Veteran statue at the memorial in Veterans Park, in addition to his regular guard duty, was also protecting wildflowers, helping to enforce a sign asking people to please STAY OFF WILDFLOWERS. Sadly, there did not appear to be too many wildflowers to stay off of, with no real need for a guard.

I don't like shopping, unless I already know exactly what I want. This was not the case with the web cam. Too many choices of varying levels of quality. I ended up with an HP web cam.

After Fry's it was around lunch time. Since I was in the neighborhood, a visit to Sweet Tomatoes seemed to make sense. Despite previously saying that until this flu crisis abates I was going to stay out of buffet lines.

But, I came prepared. I had my mask, I had several pairs of surgical gloves, I had my hand sanitizer. I'm almost 100% I did not pick up a virus while picking up stuff to eat in the buffet line.

Speaking of eating, it had been awhile since I'd been to Sweet Tomatoes. It seemed particularly good today. Strawberry is the theme for the month. There was a strawberry salad, strawberry buttermilk muffin,, strawberry mouse (is that how you spell that? It does not look right), strawberry cobbler and I'm probably forgetting a strawberry thing or two.

Swine Flu Closures Epidemic in Dallas/Fort Worth

Attempting to stop the new variant of Swine Flu from going pandemic is causing some strange inconsistencies.

All the schools are closed in Fort Worth. Dallas has not closed all its schools.

Fort Worth has canceled MayFest, this hugely popular arts, crafts and music festival in Trinity Park along the banks of the Trinity River. Cinco de Mayo Festivals in the Dallas/Fort Worth area have been canceled.

I have not heard that Dallas Maverick basketball games have been canceled. Or Texas Ranger baseball games. It would seem being in tight quarters with a mass of humanity in a sports venue would pose a much greater virus passing chance than an outdoor event.

The Dave Matthews Band and Kenny Chesney are at 2 Dallas venues on Saturday. I've not heard that these have been canceled.

I don't know if the world's biggest honky tonk, that being Billy Bob's in the Fort Worth Stockyards, has closed.

Yesterday I saw that Wal-Mart has now placed hand sanitizers at its entry. I did not see anyone bothering to use the hand sanitizer.

Center for Diseae Control Swine Flu Announcement

In addition to not doing what's being done in the picture, the Center for Disease Control recommends....

Avoiding contact with ill persons.

When you cough or sneeze, cover your nose and mouth with a tissue or your sleeve (if you do not have a tissue). Throw used tissues in a trash can.

After you cough or sneeze, wash your hands with soap and water, or use an alcohol-based hand gel.

If you think you are ill with flu, avoid close contact with others as much as possible. Stay at home or in your hotel room. Seek medical care if you are severely ill (such as having trouble breathing). There are antiviral medications for prevention and treatment of Swine Flu that a doctor can prescribe. Do not go to work, school, or travel while ill.

The symptoms of Swine Flu in people are similar to the symptoms of seasonal flu in humans and may include:

* Fever (greater than 100°F or 37.8°C)
* Sore throat
* Cough
* Stuffy nose
* Chills
* Headache and body aches
* Fatigue

Swine Flu Death in Texas, Fort Worth Shuts Schools

Overnight the Swine Flu epidemic has gotten worse. I read in the Seattle P-I this morning that Washington now has confirmed cases.

As you can see in the picture of the Dallas Morning News we've had a Swine Flu death in Texas and Fort Worth has closed down its schools.

But, the most disturbing Swine Flu news this morning is the reason why they think this strain of the virus is killing healthy people, in addition to those who are usually more vulnerable to the flu, like the elderly or those with weak immune systems.

This strain of the flu virus triggers a strong immune system response in those with healthy immune systems, with the strong immune system response damaging the throat and lung tissue.

I believe I have a healthy immune system, due to the fact I rarely get sick. The main thing I remember about my worst case of the flu, back in the early 1990s was how it hurt to breathe, like my lungs were sore. So, I'm thinking if I get this new Swine Flu, I'm likely a goner.

In the meantime I guess I'll live each day with a lot of gusto, which this morning meant I went swimming.

Stopped From Having Fun In Texas

Earlier today I blogged about the Swine Flu and said I'd not heard of any cases in my county, that being Tarrant. Well, I heard on the radio, a couple hours later, that there have been 3 cases in Fort Worth, with one school closed so it could be fumigated.

Speaking of getting fumigated. Yesterday I had a Bug Man come and get rid of my cockroach pets. I'd grown bored with them and it was time for them to go. When the spraying was done the little devils started coming out of their hiding places. That was a bit unsettling. I had no idea I had so many cockroach pets. I could go days without seeing one. It took them awhile to die. I had to take everything out of my kitchen so the Bug Man could spray everywhere. That was way too close to being like moving.

The Bug Man suggested waiting til morning before putting the kitchen back together. So that's what I did first thing in the morning.

First thing in the morning, because I could not do my usual early morning swim, due to the pool getting shocked. If you don't shock a pool every once in awhile, bad things happen. Like at my first place in Texas, being a pool novice, the chemicals got out of whack and the pool turned a bad color of green. Had to bring in a pro to get it back clear. It was sort of disturbing to see how quickly chemicals turned the water back clear again. Where did all that green go?

So, with swimming not being possible, that stir crazy feeling came over me earlier than usual. I decided to go to Village Creek Natural Historical Area. As you can see in the picture at the top, I was thwarted. The park closed due to flooding.

So, I decided to drive to the Interlocken zone, which is another way into the park and where I could see Village Creek. It can be a bit wild when it goes into flood mode. But, I saw no signs of a flood. It was clear the creek had not even gone over the dam/bridge, which is what usually triggers a closure.

That's the dam/bridge in the picture. When the creek goes over the dam/bridge it leaves a lot of mud behind. There was no mud. Where I am in the picture is way past this side of the park's Park Closed sign.

It was perplexing as to why the park was closed.

I did see a new wildflower (that's it above) growing by the dam/bridge, which became the only bright moment in a dreary day. And now I'm really going stir crazy. But I'm not going to take off, again, as tempting as it is. Thunderstorms are predicted to roll in soon. We'll see. No sign of them yet.

Not Catching Swine Flu in Texas

I don't know if we've had any confirmed Swine Flu cases here in Tarrant County, but I do know Dallas County has had 3 confirmed cases, which has closed one school and has people in a bit of a panic.

I have not been sick in a long time. I can't remember when I was last sick or what I was sick from.

But, I do remember having the flu way back in the early 1990s and it being, by far, the sickest, most miserable I've ever been. That particular flu bout happened while there was no epidemic going on. I knew no one else who had it that I could have caught it from.

So, I don't want to catch this Swine Flu thing. I guess that means avoiding any buffet lines, using the disinfectant tissues that are at the entry to most grocery stores, except for Wal-Mart. I guess for the duration Wal-Mart is to be avoided. That's probably always a good idea for people with weak immune systems. I suppose I should keep my distance from most humans til the danger passes.

In the meantime I'm having pork for lunch.