Thursday, December 5, 2013

Texas Storm Spotter Dangerous Ice Storm Update

Thursday, December 5, when I woke up my computer I saw an email had arrived at 6:55, this morning, from Texas Storm Spotter, John Basham, with the subject line of DANGEROUS ICE STORM.

The part of this update I find most worrisome is the case made for the possibility I may be without power for several days, with the suggestiion that preparations be made, such as making sure I have enough blankets.

But, what about all the food in my freezer and refrigerator? Move the frozen stuff outside into the natural freezer til the power comes back on?

Below is the Dangerous Ice Storm Update....

ICE STORM UPDATE
TEXAS - NORTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL & NORTHWEST  TEXAS
STORM SPOTTER METOPS FORT WORTH TX
655 AM CST WED DEC 5 2013

...THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...
...WHILE THE NWS ALREADY HAS A WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED...
...THIS EVENT MEETS ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA AND COULD BE UPGRADED AT
ANY TIME...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUED SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING INTO FAR NORTH TEXAS BY AFTERNOON. THIS EXTREMELY COLD LAYER OF AIR IS VERY SHALLOW AND IS TOPPED BY A RELATIVELY WARM AREA JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING AN INCREASING AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH IT. BY AROUND 6PM TEMPERATURES IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS, INCLUDING THE DFW METRO WILL BEGIN TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING RAINFALL RATES WILL START A DANGEROUS PROCESS OF FREEZING RAIN. SINCE THE WARM AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT ALLOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO FREEZE INTO SLEET PELLETS OR SNOW, IT WILL HIT THE SURFACE AS WATER AND THEN FREEZE. THE EVENT SHOULD BEGIN SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET AND THE MAJORITY OF ICE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4AM ON FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE ALL COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE 20'S THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THE ICE AND SLEET. COMPUTER MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD SEE OVER .10" OF ICE WITH SOME AREAS SEEING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SHERMAN TO DFW AIRPORT TO FORT WORTH TO GRANBURY RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF .75". ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS, HOWEVER AREAS WHERE THE GREATEST FREEZING RAIN OCCURS WILL LIKELY SEE WIDE-SPREAD POWER OUTAGES AS POWER-LINES ARE BROUGHT DOWN BY THE WEIGHT OF ICE AND TREES WEIGHTED WITH ICE COLLAPSE ONTO THE LINES. ADDITIONALLY THESE AREAS COULD BE WITHOUT POWER FOR DAYS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 20'S AND 30'S. CLIENTS WHO RELY ON POWER FOR THEIR HEATING SHOULD RUSH PREPARATIONS FOR THIS EVENT. CLIENTS WITH DRIVERS WHO WILL BE IN THE REGION BETWEEN 9PM THURSDAY AND 6AM FRIDAY SHOULD PREPARE TO HAVE THOSE DRIVERS STRANDED. EMERGENCY LIFE-SAVING SUPPLIES ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT ESPECIALLY WARM BLANKETS. AGAIN, WHILE THE EXACT AMOUNT OF ICE AND THE INDIVIDUAL COUNTIES WHERE THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION CANNOT BE EXPRESSED WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE, IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO IGNORE THIS FORECAST. LAST WEEKS VERY WEAK ICING EVENT IN NORTH TEXAS, WHERE NO DISRUPTIONS OF TRANSPORTATION OCCURRED CAUSED OVER 30,000 PERSONS TO LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER. THIS EVENT WILL BE OF A MUCH GREATER MAGNITUDE AND CANNOT BE UNDER-ESTIMATED. FOR SPECIFIC SPOT-CASTS OR SITE-SPECIFIC TIMING PLEASE CONTACT YOUR ASSIGNED METEOROLOGIST OR THE STORM SPOTTER METOPS FORECAST CENTER. UPDATES WILL FOLLOW AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. THIS IS NOT A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCT. METEOROLOGIST: BASHAM

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