Saturday, December 27, 2014
Will The Iceman Cometh To D/FW This Last Saturday Of 2014?
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE: 100 AM SAT DEC 27 2014 - TEXAS - As I mentioned in earlier forecasts a strong cold-front is currently pushing South across Texas. At 100 AM a pre-frontal wind shift was along and Northwest of a line from Gainesville to Abilene to San Angelo to Del Rio. Winds behind this line were from the North with much lower surface moisture. While the pre-frontal wind shift was located along this line the cold air-mass associated with the front was along and Northwest of a Childress to Lubbock to just North of Midland-Odessa. This cold air-mass has temperatures in the 20's and 30's with a large area of snow and some some snow/rain mix across the Southern Texas panhandle and far Northern Permian Basin. Radar returns suggest much of the precipitation is not yet making it to the ground. While the upper level disturbance that is causing this precipitation will continue through tomorrow morning it will also cause areas of light rain to develop over the Eastern 2/3 of Texas. Much of this will be very light rain through early morning especially along the I-35 corridor. This same area will see areas of dense fog develop through early morning with some areas seeing reduced visibility below 1/8 mile, or the technical term "Pea Soup". The interesting part of the forecast comes Saturday afternoon and evening when a second upper level disturbance rotates into Texas at or very near the same time the sub-freezing surface air sinks across a much larger part of Texas including the D/FW metroplex. That's when an area a larger area of precipitation including rain, snow, and sleet could very well develop Southwest of the DFW metro and then increase in area and amount. Experimental forecast models are now even showing some accumulations of up to a tenth (very small amount) of an inch of snow across Northwestern Wise, Palo Pinto, Jack, Montague, and Cooke Counties in North Central Texas by as early as 2pm Saturday Afternoon. If this early model data trending continues, then my earlier forecast of snow Northwest of a line from Sherman to D/FW Airport to Stephenville should still hold true. The real question (especially across the western metroplex) is how early in the day we will drop below freezing at the surface and how long after that point precipitation will continue. Right now my "gut feel" and truly nothing more...(sorry, wish there was some science on that) says over-running moisture will keep precipitation falling for some time after sub-freezing temperatures set in and perhaps even a while after sunset. If this turns out to be true, then we would see a good chance of some accumulations of wintry precipitation across the Western parts of the metroplex and perhaps more. The greatest snowfall accumulations in Texas on Saturday will be from Lubbock South to just North of Midland/Odessa. This area of the far Southern Panhandle and Northern Permian Basin should see totals from 2 to 6 inches. I will continue to update the forecast as new data come in, or my gut feeling takes a turn that requires Pepto. THIS IS NOT AN NWS FORECAST.